Business Update

New Zealand Energy Outlook 2009 released

The New Zealand Energy Outlook presents long-term forecasts of energy supply, demand, prices and energy sector greenhouse gas emissions.  These forecasts are principally aimed at informing New Zealand’s energy policy debate.

This edition of the Energy Outlook marks a new approach of releasing annual topic-specific articles rather than a three-yearly release of a single report.

In this first stage release, the Ministry has published a Reference Scenario, which is essentially the measuring stick against which the impact of new policies and technologies can be measured, and three further articles which examine the sensitivities of this forecast to oil prices, emissions pricing and economic growth (GDP).

“The Reference Scenario reflects what might happen if trends in key economic drivers, policy settings, technology and fuel choices don’t change,” said Simon Lawrence, Manager of the Energy Information and Modelling Group.

“Extending the analysis contained in the Reference Scenario, the sensitivity analysis explores the effect of four alternative economic growth outlooks, variations in future oil price, and the effect of four levels of international greenhouse gas emissions prices on New Zealand’s energy sector.

“We’re also keen to hear people’s ideas on other energy scenarios we could consider in the next round of modelling work.”

The Energy Outlook Reference Scenario and sensitivity articles are available free-of-charge at www.med.govt.nz/energyoutlook.  Information on the modelling approach and key assumptions made are discussed at the end of each article.

Feedback and enquiries on the Energy Outlook should be sent to energyinfo@med.govt.nz.

Related links

• New Zealand Energy Outlook
• Reference Scenario
• Economic Growth Sensitivity case
• Oil Price Sensitivity case
• Emissions Pricing Sensitivity case